The answer to this complex question requires a thorough analysis of the main aspects involved in solving this problem. There are four aspects: energy, transportation, water management, and environmental.
Energy aspect: changing priorities in the energy landscape
In the 1950s, the main priority for the construction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant was focused on energy. However, over the past 70 years, the energy landscape has drastically changed. In Europe, the energy motivation for building hydroelectric power plants has long lost not only its priority but also its relevance. During this time, carbon-based energy sources have been replaced by carbon-free and renewable ones. In the European Union, the share of electricity generated from renewable sources (excluding hydroelectric power plants) has reached 35%, and it is projected to reach 50-55% by 2030. Moreover, the most crucial aspect is that the cost trends for a unit of electricity from renewable sources (excluding hydroelectric power stations) and non-renewable sources (carbon-based, including nuclear and hydroelectric power stations) are reversing: the former is decreasing with acceleration, while the latter is increasing.
This is even more characteristic of investment profitability: in green energy (from renewable sources), the profitability index is increasing rapidly, while in carbon-based, nuclear, and hydro-engineering sectors, it is significantly decreasing.
The Russian-Ukrainian war has also led to energy deconcentration, decentralization, and localization. Green energy from renewable sources adapts best to these processes.
It is evident from this that investing in the construction, reconstruction, or modernization of hydroelectric power stations for energy purposes carries significant risks for project profitability. In other words, the energy aspect of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant reconstruction loses value and perspective.
Transportation aspect: shifting preferences in transport infrastructure
The same applies fully to the transportation aspect. In the mid-20th century, the construction of hydroelectric power plants on the Dnipro River, especially in the rapids area, was relevant to enhance its transportation capacity. However, river transportation has widely lost its position. The focus is increasingly on automotive transportation, which has no alternative in meeting consumer demands, especially in terms of proximity to mass consumers. The Dnipro waterway corridor is multi-lock, lengthy, and too localized. Therefore, investing in the construction of locks (an essential part of the dams) is as unpromising for transportation purposes as building the dams themselves for energy purposes.
Water management aspect: the irreplaceable relevance of water management
A completely different matter is the water management aspect. Its relevance is constantly increasing, and it has become the primary focus. While both previous aspects (energy and transportation) have promising and efficient alternatives, the water management aspect is irreplaceable. There is no perspective for water substitution. On the contrary, in the vast majority of countries worldwide, including Europe and specifically Ukraine, the outlook is one of water scarcity. Therefore, the search for water supply sources and methods of rational water use becomes increasingly important. That’s precisely why the water management aspect of the Kakhovka reservoir restoration takes precedence.
The radical shift in emphasis from the energy and transportation aspects of the reconstruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station to the water management aspect fully aligns with ecological requirements. While the energy and transportation aspects used to compete with ecological concerns, the water management aspect, on the contrary, harmonizes and synergizes with them. Therefore, the reconstruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station is necessary, but it needs to be maximally reoriented (re-prioritized) towards restoring the reservoir. This way, the energy and transportation aspects will also receive further development, but they become secondary to the main focus.
However, the water management (and thus ecological) aspect brings new requirements for the reservoir’s restoration. These include economic and water management demands, such as limiting (reducing) the inundation area, increasing water intake and filling capacities, improving the natural functioning of the reservoir (flora, fauna, water quality, ecology, etc.), significantly enhancing water supply for the economy and population, creating an extensive water distribution network, and improving water use efficiency.
The question is to minimize the discharge of Dnipro water into the sea. Here, a comparison can be made with the famous saying of scientists about oil: “Burning oil is equivalent to burning money.” Therefore, discharging fresh water into the salty sea is akin to wasting currency. Expanding and improving the efficiency of irrigation in the agricultural areas within the reachable zone of Dnipro water (300-400 km) can increase crop yields of agricultural crops by 1.5-2 times and food exports by 3-4 times. This is the same currency of water origin. The value of water is well understood in many countries with arid climates, where there is usually a constant and acute shortage of food, malnutrition, and hunger among the population.
This is confirmed by global experience. For instance, more than half of the renowned agricultural export potential of the Netherlands is produced on reclaimed and protected land. In northern Germany, the construction of the Prignitz dams has led to a one-third increase in agricultural production. Similar examples exist in Ukraine, both positive and negative. For example, the construction of the left-bank dam (approximately 70 km) of the Kyiv reservoir protected dozens of villages and thousands of hectares of farmland from flooding. On the other hand, the absence of such a dam on the Kremenchuk reservoir led to the displacement of over a hundred villages and the loss of hundreds of thousands of hectares of agricultural land. Furthermore, the reservoir’s ecology suffers from extensive shallow waters along the coastline. By the way, the issue raised concerning the Kakhovka reservoir is highly relevant for the future modernization of the Kremenchuk reservoir as well. Here, the potential for effectiveness could be much higher.
The construction of coastal dams holds significant importance for the modernization of the Kakhovka reservoir. Their purpose is to substantially limit the outflow of shallow water, increase the water basin’s volume, and “improve” the reservoir’s functioning. This will allow for agricultural, forestry, and other uses of the reclaimed water-free areas, equivalent to about 50-70 thousand hectares. Simultaneously, building coastal dams and raising the main dam of the reservoir can double the volume of the effective (utilized) water storage. Consequently, it becomes possible to expand the network of water supply canals for towns and villages, for the population, and for irrigating farmland. The water management sector is where the largest and most efficient benefits of the reservoir reconstruction can be achieved. Moreover, the efficiency can be significantly enhanced in the energy sector through the modernization of the power units, which has already been planned, increasing the number of turbines, and raising the water pressure on them.
Therefore, the benefit of reconstructing the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant with an emphasis on prioritizing and comprehensively modernizing the reservoir can lead to rapid investment payback and high overall economic returns. Undoubtedly, the primary source of investment should be financial compensation from Russia for the destroyed hydroelectric power plants, dam, reservoir, and the resulting ruin for the economy, ecology, and the population as a whole. However, even before resolving the compensation issue, such a conceptual approach can be highly attractive for the World Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and other institutions as an investment opportunity. This aligns with the goals of the United Nations in combating world hunger and promoting sustainable development. It also serves Ukraine’s interests in achieving a synergistic effect from an innovative approach to the reconstruction, which was destroyed by Russian aggression, for the economy. This way, Ukraine will triumph not only on the battlefield but also in future competition with Russia in the realms of economy and social development.
Originally posted by Ivan Gaidutskyy on Zn.ua. Translated and edited by the UaPosition – Ukrainian news and analytics website
See also: Blowing up the Kakhovka Dam: Russia’s announced crime
