Narendra Modi’s visit to Ukraine, the first by an Indian prime minister in more than three decades, is a delicate balancing act.
It’s a gamble that could go wrong and further push the Russian president into the arms of China, isolating India.
The visit on Friday comes after much criticism of the embrace between Mr Modi and President Putin last month.
That very day Russian missiles struck a Ukrainian children’s hospital killing 47 and injuring 170 people, mostly children. The two incidents were just hours apart and not missed by world leaders.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted photos of the attack on X saying: “A Russian missile struck the largest children’s hospital in Ukraine, targeting young cancer patients. Many were buried under the rubble.”
“It is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day.”
Sushant Singh, lecturer at Yale University told Sky News that Mr Modi’s visit to Kyiv is significant because it marks a shift in India’s position on the war.
“Not that much is expected in terms of outcome, but the fact that a leader like Modi is going to Kyiv so soon after visiting Moscow makes it significant,” he said.
As the world’s largest democracy, India has still not condemned the invasion of a sovereign nation. It also abstained from a number of United Nations resolutions aimed at condemning Russia’s invasion or its human rights violations in Ukraine.
Russia has praised India’s position as “balanced and independent”.
In June, Indian diplomats attended the Ukraine Peace summit in Switzerland but did not sign the Joint Communique – an agreement signed by states that it is their desire to contribute to the peace process.
A long history of a special relationship
There is much history to this special relationship. During the Cold War India was clubbed in the Soviet Union camp, while America favoured arch rival Pakistan.
The Soviet Union used to veto resolutions brought by western nations against India on Kashmir, the liberation of Goa and Bangladesh.
In turn, India abstained in UN resolutions against the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. It also voted against condemning Russia’s actions in Chechnya and Abkhazia.
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Over the years the relationship strengthened particularly in the defence sector, with military hardware forming an overwhelming chunk of the Indian defence establishment.
Russia supplied 65% of India’s weapons purchases during the last two decades, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Though India is trying to wean itself off by shopping for military hardware from western countries, it is a time-consuming process with complicated issues of technology transfers involved.
Under Mr Modi’s regime, it’s realpolitik that India follows in its foreign policy.
Since the conflict began in February 2022, India has upped its purchase of discounted Russian crude.
The annual imports rose from 2% in 2021 to 20% in two years.
Despite efforts by Ukraine and other Western nations to limit Russia’s ability to sell oil and bankroll the war machine, in June this year Russian crude constituted 42% of India’s total oil imports – surpassing the combined shares from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and the US.
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Mr Singh said that it is India’s procurement of Russian oil that has kept global crude prices down, a fact acknowledged by the Biden administration.
No Indian company has been sanctioned so far.
India’s foreign ministry said the country’s decisions over who it trades with is guided by the country’s energy and security requirements, and “substantive and independent ties” with both Russia and Ukraine are partnerships.
“[They] stand on their own and that is not a zero-sum game,” the ministry said.
Foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar added: “Every country will try naturally to get the best deal possible for its citizens. It is my obligation and moral duty to ensure that I get the best deal.”
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According to Mr Singh, Mr Modi remains focused on his domestic audience which has been enthused by the images of his foreign visits where he acts like a global leader.
The prime minister also wants to avoid stringent criticism from the US when he visits New York next month.
In September 2022, Mr Modi publicly told President Putin “this is not the time for war and solution cannot be found on the battlefield”.
For over a decade there has been a tilt towards the West, particularly America with India providing a counterbalance to China in Asia.
Since the invasion, Russia and China have grown closer which worries India. Pakistan, a close ally of China is also cosying up to Russia.
If the latter flips, India would then face an alternate alignment, leaving it isolated in Asia.
