Poland is one of the main targets for Russia. This is not surprising, given the country’s significant support to Ukraine, which lies beyond the Vistula River. However, recent events vividly demonstrate how far the Kremlin is willing to go to hinder Polish aid. This has escalated tensions to an even higher level.
Enemy of my enemy
On July 23, during another meeting with Vladimir Putin in Saint Petersburg, the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, displayed a map supposedly showing Polish plans for aggression against his country.
He referred to the fact that one of the Polish brigades is located about 40 kilometers from Brest, and another is approximately 100 kilometers from Grodno. Moreover, he threatened Poland with mercenaries from the Wagner Group, who, as he emphasized, are requesting “trips to Warsaw and Rzeszów.”
In reality, the redeployment of military units to the eastern part of the country, under the order of Poland’s Minister of Defense Mariusz Błaszczak, was aimed at strengthening the Polish border in the face of the arrival of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mercenaries on Belarusian territory. The latter and his group, as known, headed to the satellite republic shortly after an unsuccessful “attempt” of a state coup in Russia.
However, “dad” (referring to Lukashenko) seems to be unconcerned about the real state of affairs. The gradual and irreversible absorption of Belarus, disguised as “integration within the framework of the Union State,” leaves him no other option but to make “gestures” towards Vladimir Vladimirovich (Putin) and attempt to somehow appease the world outcast.
It can be assumed that Lukashenko’s “trick” has worked after all. Considering that, after Ukraine, Poland is arguably Putin’s main target in Europe, it’s not surprising, given that Warsaw has taken on the role of the chief lobbyist for Kyiv’s interests in the West and has been actively assisting Ukraine in defending against Russian military aggression.
Therefore, the principle of “the enemy of my enemy” may play into the hands of the Belarusian dictator, especially after the complete surrender of state sovereignty, as evidenced by other actions taken against neighboring countries.
Hidden danger
Over the past almost 2 years, there have been numerous incidents of Russia’s aggressive intentions and activities against Poland. From the ongoing migration crisis at the Polish-Belarusian border to repeated incidents of rocket projectiles entering Polish territory, the Kremlin does not hesitate to employ tried-and-tested methods from Soviet times, such as espionage and subversive activities.
One notable event was the exposure of a spy network operating on behalf of Moscow by the Polish intelligence agencies. Just in March of this year, the Internal Security Agency of Poland arrested 9 individuals suspected of cooperating with Russian intelligence services. Later, their number increased to 15.
The Internal Security Agency of Poland apprehended them after discovering dozens (at least 50) of webcams installed on important routes and railway junctions, which were monitoring train tracks and transmitting the images to a network.
It mainly concerns sections of railway tracks in the Subcarpathian Voivodeship, particularly in the area near the Yasenka airport, close to Rzeszów — a major transfer point for Western weapons and ammunition destined for Ukraine. This is precisely why Lukashenko spoke negatively about this city during his meeting with Putin in St. Petersburg.
The primary task of those arrested was to gather information, especially data on the number of transports, their supplies, and the type of equipment coming into Ukraine from the West. They were assessing how well the coalition of countries supporting Ukraine was fulfilling its promises and how realistic this assistance looked. However, they were not solely focused on this.
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As it turned out, Russian spies had plans for sabotage, subversion, and destruction, including undermining trains carrying weapons and humanitarian supplies destined for Ukraine. Additionally, information from the Internal Security Agency of Poland shows that the group was also instructed to engage in propaganda activities to destabilize Polish-Ukrainian relations, foster hostile sentiments towards NATO countries in Poland, and criticize the government’s policies regarding Ukraine.
In light of this situation, in March, the personnel of security and police services were put on heightened alert. Special attention began to be given to ensuring the security of strategically important railway tracks in Poland. Additionally, the protection of critical infrastructure key facilities was strengthened.
Official authorities state that Poles must be prepared for attempts at destabilization and hybrid actions from Russia. They also emphasize the need to carefully monitor whether regimes in Moscow and Minsk are using certain actions to destabilize the country.
Notably, this is not the first similar case in Poland since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine. In April 2022, two men — citizens of Belarus and Russia were arrested. According to materials gathered during the investigation by the military counterintelligence service, it was established that they were involved in the activities of Russian military intelligence, identifying military objects critical to Polish defense.
Their espionage activities also involved gathering information about the readiness, morale, and operations of units, especially in emergency situations, which was then passed on to the Main Intelligence Directorate. The prosecution stated that the espionage activities of the individuals focused on military units located in the northeastern part of Poland.
The authorities found that both the Russian and Belarusian individuals were in Poland legally. The Belarusian citizen initially studied at one of the universities in Białystok, and then became involved in organizing parachute training. He established contacts, including social ones, which he used in his activities for Russian military intelligence. The second individual, of Russian nationality, operated on behalf of Russian intelligence, using cultural activities and tourism as a cover.
The circumstance is quite serious. Therefore, it is not excluded that the consequences of not detecting and apprehending Russian spies could have led to events similar to those organized by Russian agents in October and December 2014, such as the explosions at ammunition depots in the village of Vrbětice in the eastern part of the Czech Republic.
At that time, it’s worth noting, according to available information, two agents of the Main Intelligence Directorate were involved in the explosions. The explosions were likely carried out, in part, to disrupt the supply of weapons to Ukraine, which closely resembles the objectives set for the recently uncovered Russian espionage network operating on Polish territory.
The last argument
The situation has been exacerbated by Putin’s announced deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, which, according to the Defense Intelligence Agency of the US Department of Defense, leaves no grounds for doubt.
In June, the Kremlin dictator stated that the “first Russian nuclear warheads had been delivered to Belarus,” adding that Russia did so for “deterrence.” At the same time, Lukashenko declared that in case of an attack, he would “not hesitate” to use the Russian tactical nuclear weapons located in his country, although he did not specify the method of their use.
However, it is clearly demonstrated how both regimes are willing to go to great lengths due to their understanding of the inevitable military and geopolitical defeat in Ukraine.
Undoubtedly, Poland plays a crucial role in approaching victory over rashism. This is precisely why Moscow and Minsk prefer not to allow this and do everything possible to sideline Warsaw, thereby significantly weakening Ukraine during this challenging and crucial period. The civilized world must not allow such a scenario.
Originally posted by Stanislav Zhelikhovskyi on 24 Kanal. Translated and edited by the UaPosition – Ukrainian news and analytics website
