Washington, DC – Donald Trump has been claiming credit for the ceasefire deal that halted the war in Gaza, but the United States president’s proposal to forcibly displace the Palestinians in the territory risks torpedoing the agreement, experts say.
Trump repeatedly called this week for Gaza to be depopulated — a push that rights groups say would amount to ethnic cleansing — and for the US to “take over” the Palestinian territory.
Leaders across the world have warned that uprooting Palestinians from Gaza would destabilise the entire Middle East. More immediately, Trump’s comments could derail the push towards an enduring end to the fighting in the territory.
“President Trump’s completely outrageous and outlandish calls for the ethnic cleansing of more than two million Palestinian people from Gaza severely undermines the chances for the continuation of the ceasefire,” said Josh Ruebner, a lecturer at Georgetown University’s Justice and Peace programme.
“Of course, the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians was not in any ceasefire agreement, and by Trump putting that option on the table, he stands to wreck the very fragile process.”
The ceasefire came into effect on January 19, a day before Trump took office for a second term. But the US president has argued that his negotiating efforts, led by Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, were instrumental to sealing the deal.
Trump invoked the ceasefire in his inaugural address as he pledged to leave a legacy as a “peacemaker and unifier”.
‘We had nothing to do with it’
Days later, Trump suggested emptying Gaza of its inhabitants. Initially, it was easy to dismiss the comments as one of his off-the-cuff, hyperbolic pronouncements.
But then he repeated them again and again. On Tuesday, he read prepared remarks that fleshed out his proposal while speaking alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House.
“The US will take over the Gaza Strip, and we will do a job with it, too. We’ll own it,” Trump said.
Despite Trump’s comments, the ceasefire has continued to hold. The guns remain silent, and Hamas is set to release three more Israeli captives in the coming days in exchange for 183 Palestinians held by Israel.
However, the US president’s proposal raises questions about the later stages of the truce deal, which include discussions about the future of Gaza.
The first phase — which will see the release of 33 Israeli captives, a surge of humanitarian assistance to Gaza and partial Israeli withdrawal from the territory — is set to expire on March 1.
The second stage is supposed to see a complete pullout of Israeli forces from Gaza, a permanent ceasefire and the release of all remaining captives held by Hamas. And the third stage includes a five-year reconstruction plan for Gaza.
Trump’s push for the people of Gaza to leave the territory altogether appears to be in direct contradiction with the spirit of the agreement.
And there are signs that the US administration is no longer committed to all parts of the deal it has been bragging about brokering.
On Tuesday, Trump’s envoy Witkoff suggested that Washington will push to complete the first two stages to free all Israeli captives. But he seemed to renege on the third stage — rebuilding Gaza — saying that it “can’t go the way that agreement talks about, which is a five-year programme”.
Witkoff distanced the Trump team from the deal altogether, saying that it wasn’t “wonderful” from the start.
“We had nothing to do with it,” he said.
‘It’s gone’
US officials have tried to walk back — or at least tone down — Trump’s comments, with White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt saying that people in Gaza would be “temporarily relocated”.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio also said that the displacement of Palestinians in Gaza would be in the “interim”, and residents would be able to “move back in” after reconstruction.
But the president has been reiterating almost daily this week that his plan is to permanently remove the Palestinians in Gaza and claim the territory for the US.
Khalil Jahshan, the executive director of the Arab Center Washington DC, said Trump’s proposal spells doom for the ceasefire.
“What we have heard from the White House this week, in my humble judgement, killed the ceasefire agreement totally. It’s gone,” Jahshan told Al Jazeera.
“It deprived the ceasefire agreement of its intended purpose: a solution for the day-after for Gaza and the people of Gaza. If the people of Gaza are going to be transferred ethnically to places from Indonesia to Albania to whatever, then what’s the purpose of proceeding?”
Trump himself has suggested that the war may restart soon.
“The strikes could start tomorrow,” Trump said on Tuesday. “There’s not a lot left to strike.”
Since October 2023, Israel’s US-backed offensive in Gaza has killed nearly 62,000 Palestinians, including thousands of missing people who are presumed dead.
But why did Trump emphatically claim credit for a ceasefire he did not intend on upholding?
“Donald Trump isn’t interested in the ceasefire for the wellbeing of Palestinians,” said Khaled Elgindy, a Middle East analyst.
“He’s interested in the headline of the ceasefire. He wants the credit. He wants to say, ‘I won. I’m the guy who did it.’ He doesn’t actually care if it’s implemented or if it falls apart or if it ends in ethnic cleansing.”
Netanyahu’s war goals
Elgindy said completing the second stage of the deal — a permanent ceasefire and Israeli troop withdrawal — will be vital for thwarting the ethnic cleansing plan.
“There’s no question that the ceasefire, on its face, is totally incompatible with a plan to ethnically cleanse Gaza,” Elgindy told Al Jazeera.
“This is why I think phase two is so critical. If we can get an agreement on phase two, and phase two is implemented, then I think the risk of actual ethnic cleansing is greatly diminished.”
Elgindy added that it doesn’t help the ceasefire that Trump “is talking crazy” about the future of Gaza, but seeing the deal through has its own dynamic — and the decision to do so lies with Netanyahu and the US president.
When asked about the ceasefire at the White House this week, Netanyahu pledged to continue to pursue three war goals: releasing the captives, destroying Hamas’s military and governing capabilities, and ensuring that Gaza does not pose a threat to Israel.
Heavily armed Hamas fighters emerged across Gaza after more than 15 months of war after the ceasefire. And the group appears to still be overseeing the civilian administration of the territory.
Netanyahu could see his governing coalition collapse if Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who favours resuming the war, withdraws from the government.
“At this point, Netanyahu already knows whether or not he wants a ceasefire — a phase two — and Donald Trump already knows whether he’s going to go along with Netanyahu’s decision,” Elgindy told Al Jazeera.
For Jahshan, Netanyahu made his plans known when he reiterated his intention to continue to pursue the war objectives.
“The statements made by Netanyahu in the presence of Trump, without Trump’s objection, is essentially a declaration of war — resuming the war soon. So to me, that’s probably the most likely scenario,” he told Al Jazeera.
