Benjamin Netanyahu’s meeting with Donald Trump on Tuesday is more than just a routine visit by a world leader to the White House; what they agree or disagree on could have long-reaching consequences for what happens next in Gaza.
Mr Netanyahu becomes the first leader to see President Trump since his return to the Oval Office and the Israeli prime minister has barely been able to contain himself.
“It is a testimony to the strength of our personal friendship,” he stated as he boarded the official government plane in Tel Aviv, Wings of Zion.
But neither Bibi, nor the Israeli media travelling with him, are under any illusions how precarious his relationship with Mr Trump really is and what’s at stake.
Israel is obsessed with its relationship with the US, even more so than the UK’s constant need to be reassured of its own “special relationship”.
In his first term, the US president gave Mr Netanyahu a series of “wins”: He withdrew the US from the Iran nuclear deal, recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, moved the US embassy to the city (still a work in progress) and recognised the Golan Heights as part of Israel.
But the relationship soured in January 2020, when the Israeli leader pulled out of participating in the assassination of Iranian Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani at the last minute, then tried to take credit for it and Mr Trump grew to realise that Mr Netanyahu prioritised domestic politics over regional affairs, at one point jeopardising the Abraham Accords.
The final straw was when Mr Netanyahu publicly congratulated Joe Biden on winning the 2020 election when the result was, in Mr Trump’s mind at least, still in doubt. The US president was furious.
A meeting last July at Mar-a-Lago seemed to indicate the two had put their differences aside however. “We’ve always had a great relationship,” said the American.
Mr Trump is likely to be far more wary of Benjamin Netanyahu this time around though, and the honour of this invitation is wrapped up in a personal desire to ensure things progress in the Middle East the way he wants them to.
The immediate priority is Gaza and ensuring the ceasefire holds. Mr Trump’s re-election and threat that “all hell will break loose” certainly helped get the deal over the line.
His Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, has taken a sympathetic but no-nonsense approach towards the Israeli government, allegedly telling Mr Netanyahu’s aides that Shabbat (Jewish Sabbath) was “of no interest to him” when they tried to prevent him meeting the prime minister on a Saturday during a crunch moment in the talks. Mr Witkoff himself is Jewish.
Mr Trump supports Israel’s fight against Hamas and agrees it mustn’t govern Gaza again, but he is being publicly lauded by the hostages and their families each week they are released, and he has nothing to gain from a return to the fighting.
The second item on the agenda is inextricably linked: a normalisation deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
It’s something both Mr Trump and Mr Netanyahu long for and want swift progress on, but a non-starter for Riyadh as long as Gaza’s future remains in doubt, and without at least some suggestion there will be a pathway to a Palestinian state.
Concessions on either or both of these areas could collapse Mr Netanyahu’s government if the extremist parties resign in protest, as they have threatened to do.
Mixed signals
Polls indicate most Israelis don’t want a resumption of fighting, but Mr Netanyahu is giving mixed signals and will want a form of words that keeps the prospect on the table, if only to keep his far-right coalition partners on side and his premiership intact.
In recent days, and to unanimous opposition from Arab states, Mr Trump has repeated his suggestion that Gaza be “cleaned out” and Palestinians moved to Egypt and Jordan so that the Strip can be rebuilt.
Some wonder whether this could be a tactic to artificially raise the stakes and give Saudi Arabia something to “block”, in return for a normalisation deal.
Mr Netanyahu spoke to reporters before leaving for Washington
It could also be a distraction for the Israeli far-right that allows Mr Netanyahu to press on with phase two of the ceasefire.
Both leaders agree Iran must not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon but differ when it comes to how that is achieved.
Having successfully degraded Hamas and Hezbollah, and seen Assad fall across the border in Syria, Mr Netanyahu believes Iran and its Supreme Leader are the weakest they have been for decades.
He is right, but is this the moment to strike?
Donald Trump, long averse to Middle East wars, doesn’t see it as America’s fight and believes military action should be a last resort should negotiation, under the pressure of sanctions, fail.
Iran, under a new president and elderly Supreme Leader, has shown willingness to re-enter talks, but some fear it’s a ruse to buy time before the window for “snapback sanctions” expires later this year and whilst it enriches uranium to the point of no return.
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President Trump will need to decide whether a deal is possible, or he risks becoming bogged down in deliberately protracted negotiations.
Benjamin Netanyahu is as calculating as Mr Trump is unpredictable.
It’s likely neither will get everything he wants, but Mr Trump is just at the start of his final four years in the White House and with his legacy already firmly in mind, whereas Mr Netanyahu oversees a volatile coalition with wavering support at home ahead of new elections next year.
The conduct of the meeting and mood between the two men will be crucial to the coming years in the Middle East and whether that means more conflict or the building of new relationships.
