Is Russia running out of ammunition? It’s a question Ukraine and its allies have been pondering as the war continues well into its second year.
Back in December, the US military estimated that, without outside help, Moscow would burn through its stocks of artillery shells and rockets by early this year – so why haven’t they run out?
It’s certainly true that, whatever supply issues it has encountered, Russia’s war machine continues to rain down misery upon Ukraine’s defenders.
The answer, it appears, is that Moscow has looked to foreign suppliers to sustain its rate of fire, as well as older stocks of shells.
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North Korea
Kim Jong Un could be set for a trip to Russia to meet President Vladimir Putin, according to a US official.
The reason? Not announced, but it comes as the US claims the Kremlin is attempting to acquire military equipment for its war in Ukraine.
National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said on Monday that Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu had travelled to North Korea’s capital of Pyongyang last month.
It is believed Mr Shoigu attempted to persuade North Korea – one of the most militarised countries in the world – to sell artillery ammunition to Russia.
North Korea has previously denied having any “arms dealings” with Russia, however, the US has imposed sanctions on three entities it accused of being tied to arms deals between the two countries.
Iran
Another key ally of Russia, Iran has been accused of supplying large numbers of deadly drones to Russia.
Swarms of Shahed 136 drones have been sent to attack Ukrainian cities. Early on, they wrought huge damage on the country’s power supply but defenders have become increasingly able to shoot them down.
“You don’t know where they are going to hit, when they are going to hit,” Stuart Ray from McKenzie Intelligence Services previously told Sky News. “It’s a terrifying weapon.”
Shahed 136 drone
And it’s not just drones that Iran is suspected of supplying. A purported arms contract seen by Sky News suggests Iran has sold ammunition to Russia, an informed security source claimed.
If authentic, the 16-page document, dated 14 September 2022, appears to be for samples of varying sizes of artillery and tank shells and rockets worth just over $1m (£800,000).
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China
By far Russia’s biggest and richest ally, China has repeatedly denied sending military equipment to Russia since Moscow’s all-out invasion of its neighbour, despite the two nations signing a “no-limits” partnership in February 2022.
The US secretary of state warned China earlier this year there would be “consequences” if Beijing provides material support to Russia for its war in Ukraine.
Antony Blinken said in an interview after meeting with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi that Washington was concerned Beijing was considering supplying weapons to Moscow.
Piles of artillery shells, cruise and ballistic missiles shot at Ukrainian troops and cities that have been piled up in Kharkiv
However there have been reports – including in July from Politico – that equipment from China that is non-lethal but still useful to Moscow’s soldiers has been sent to Russia.
Helena Legarda, a lead analyst specialising in Chinese defence and foreign policy at the Mercator Institute for China Studies, told the outlet that while any supply of weapons might trigger an international response, things like body armour and even commercial drones would be unlikely to do so.
