The Kremlin’s reaction to reports that Washington has lifted restrictions on how Ukraine uses its weapons was nothing we haven’t heard before.
It follows a well-worn theme of anger, warnings and accusations.
If confirmed, the decision will spark a “new round of tension”, we were told. The Biden administration wants to “throw oil on the fire”. They are the ones guilty of escalation, not Russia.
There was no mention of the thousands of North Korean troops Moscow has reportedly deployed to the frontline in Russia’s Kursk region to repel the Ukrainian incursion. But that’s to be expected.
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That’s because this sort of rhetoric is now very much part of the script for the Kremlin. It’s trying to ensure the public here continues to buy into its narrative that Moscow is the innocent party, that Russia is under attack.
As for the threats of retaliation, they’re still undefined.
The Kremlin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov referred journalists to Vladimir Putin‘s comments in September, that Russia would be forced to take “appropriate decisions” if the West lifted restrictions on Ukraine‘s use of its long-range weapons.
What could such decisions look like?
In the past, Russia’s president has mentioned sending weapons to the West’s adversaries to strike Western targets abroad. He didn’t mention any nations specifically, but the assumption was it was a reference to Iran.
Moscow has also recently changed its nuclear doctrine, to allow it in theory to respond with nuclear weapons if Western missiles fall on Russian soil.
So are these threats genuine? Or is it more sabre-rattling?
The calculus in Washington seems to be that this is another bluff from Moscow, following the obliteration of previous red lines without consequence.
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The West has supplied missiles, battle tanks and fighter jets to Kyiv, all without invoking the escalation that was threatened.
But could Russia respond in other, more subtle ways, which it doesn’t want to broadcast? Think sabotage, cyber attacks, closer alignment with Iran – and of course North Korea.
So in that sense, it’s not the Kremlin’s public fury the West will be worried about, it’s what happens behind the scenes.
