Just imagine the scene. Vladimir Putin steps off his presidential plane after touching down in Mongolia and, within seconds, he’s in handcuffs.
It would be an astonishing sight – the leader of one of the UN Security Council’s permanent members placed under arrest for suspected war crimes.
In fact, it would be unprecedented. But it’s also very unlikely.
Yes, it is what should happen in theory. All members of the International Criminal Court (ICC) are compelled to detain suspects for whom an arrest warrant has been issued, should they set foot on their soil. Mongolia is no exception.
But in reality, the country will not want to risk the ire of its powerful neighbour, on whom it has huge economic dependence.
The fallout with Moscow would likely be far worse, and more harmful to Mongolia, than any consequences from upsetting the Hague.
There would be anger from activists and political condemnation if Mongolia doesn’t follow its obligations, but the ICC doesn’t have the power to enforce them.
What’s more, it wouldn’t be the first time a court member has ignored the rules.
In 2015, South Africa chose not to detain the then Sudanese President, Omar al Bashir, when he visited the country, despite an active arrest warrant.
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The skyline of Ulaanbaatar, the capital of Mongolia. Pic: AP
South Africa took a different approach last year, however, when it hosted a BRICS summit, which Vladimir Putin normally attends.
Not wanting to be in the same position again, South Africa managed to persuade him to stay at home and join via video link instead.
But Mongolia doesn’t have that clout with the Kremlin, which said it had “no worries” about the trip.
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Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, added they have a “wonderful dialogue” with their neighbour.
It’s safe to assume that “dialogue” will have included assurances from Mongolia that Russia’s president won’t end up in chains.
And for Vladimir Putin, that would represent a big win in the diplomatic war being waged by Russia alongside its conflict in Ukraine.
It’s a way to needle the West, and undermine the rules-based international order which he so often rails against.
