Joe Biden flies to the Middle East with his policy for the region in tatters.
It was not meant to be like this. Until a couple of weeks ago his administration was preparing for an outbreak of peace.
A historic deal between sworn enemies was in the offing or so it seemed.
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Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said every day was bringing him closer to a deal with Israel.
Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu openly talked of such an outcome in his address to the UN General Assembly in New York a month ago.
The US president could dream of a historic handshake on the east lawn on the eve of election year.
Instead he is looking at war in Israel and Gaza, with another much bigger one a real possibility, and all that means for the chances of global recession.
What a difference a fortnight can make for a president’s chances of re-election.
While US, Israeli and Saudi diplomats fantasised of peace, Hamas and Iran had other plans.
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Both would have been sidelined by a Saudi-Israeli rapprochement, and they appear to have been determined to scupper its chances.
Joe Biden’s team had hoped to assuage Iranian concerns with a series of measures to ease tensions, billions of dollars unfrozen in return for the release of US hostages held by the Islamic Republic, the relaxing of sanctions.
But Tehran was always going to need a lot more than that. The Israeli-Saudi detente would be a nightmare for Iran, promising security guarantees to Riyadh and a civilian nuclear energy programme.
The Saudi-Israeli peace plan will have made sense on paper in Washington. But it ignored some important realities on the ground here.
Like the Abraham Accords between Israel and the Gulf states, it offered no solution to the festering sore at the heart of the Middle East conflict, the fate of the Palestinians, just lofty aspirations about prosperity and security.
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Israel strikes south Gaza
Given Iran’s likely antipathy to the entente, it now seems remarkable in hindsight that neither Israel nor America appear to have prepared for the possibility of some kind of violent push back from either Tehran or its proxies in the region.
Israel’s guard was down, and it has paid a horrendous price for its complacency and hubris.
Not for the first time America appears to have been naive in its policy for the Middle East.
President Biden must now salvage what he can from the wreckage of his plans and he must try and contain the fallout and stop the conflict from spreading.
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He will try to add weight to that four-letter warning that he has already given Israel’s enemies thinking of joining in.
“Don’t”. That includes two naval carrier groups and US marines in the region in force.
And he comes with a message to Israel. We have your back but do not overreach. A bloodbath in Gaza will inflame passions and tensions in the region.
America’s diplomacy has failed in the Middle East not for the first time. It must now work overtime to stop a bad situation becoming much, much worse.
