Washington, DC – Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum and her United States counterpart Donald Trump have announced a month-long pause to the sweeping US tariffs that were threatened for exports from Mexico.
Both leaders confirmed the agreement in social media posts on Monday, a day before the tariffs were supposed to come into effect. Sheinbaum was the first to reveal the pause, writing on the platform X.
“We had a good conversation with President Trump with great respect for our relationship and sovereignty,” she said.
She explained that, as a result of their discussion, Mexico would send 10,000 National Guard troops to its northern border to “prevent drug trafficking from Mexico to the United States”.
Sheinbaum added that the US was, in return, working to prevent the trafficking of high-powered firearms to Mexico, which has long strengthened organised crime in the country.
Trump followed with his own announcement, describing the conversation with Sheinbaum as “very friendly” and praising the deployment of Mexico’s National Guard.
“These soldiers will be specifically designated to stop the flow of fentanyl, and illegal migrants into our Country,” Trump wrote. He did not mention any US efforts to stop gun trafficking to Mexico.
The tariff pause staves off — at least temporarily — one front of a brewing global trade war percolated by Trump.
During his 2024 bid for re-election, Trump campaigned heavily on raising tariffs for international goods coming into the US, as a means of bolstering the domestic industry.
After his victory in November, he unveiled a proposal for 25-percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada, two of the US’s top trading partners. He argued that the harsh measures were necessary to crack down on undocumented migration and drug smuggling across US borders.
But economists say the tariffs could be the first salvo in an eventual trade war that could hurt consumers in the US and across the world.
Looming trade war
Monday’s announcement, however, only delays one of the tariffs set to start on Tuesday.
Canada remains subject to 25-percent tariffs, though Trump signalled he would be speaking with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau later on Monday. Trump has also pledged a 10-percent increase on tariffs for China.
But the threat of import taxes on foreign goods has led to a politics of brinkmanship between the countries.
For weeks, Mexico has said it was prepared to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US, but it has not gone into specifics.
Canada, meanwhile, has been much more explicit with how it would respond to Trump’s promised tariffs. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his country would impose 25-percent retaliatory tariffs on $105bn worth of US imports.
“I want to speak directly to Americans,” Trudeau said on Saturday. “This is a choice that, yes, will harm Canadians, but beyond that, it will have real consequences for you, the American people. As I have consistently said, tariffs against Canada will put your jobs at risk.”
His government released a list of 1,256 US items that would be subject to tariffs, including key exports from states with a large proportion of Trump voters. They include oranges from Florida, bourbon from Kentucky and motorcycles made in Pennsylvania.
Tariff risks
The economies of Mexico, Canada and the US are deeply intertwined, with a trade war expected to hit the automotive and agricultural industries particularly hard. Experts have repeatedly warned that increased prices would eventually be felt by US consumers.
Trump himself, in a post on Truth Social, acknowledged there could be domestic blowback to the plan. His administration has broadly framed tariffs as a tool in Trump’s hardline negotiation technique. Trump has also said such tariffs are needed to jump-start US industries.
“Will there be some pain? Yes, maybe (and maybe not!),” Trump posted in all capital letters on Sunday.
“But we will Make America Great Again, and it will all be worth the price that must be paid.”
In a subsequent post, Trump said that Canada could avoid US tariffs by ceding its sovereignty and becoming “our Cherished 51st State”.
In the lead-up to his second term, Trump campaigned on bringing down the prices of basic consumer goods and boosting US industries.
But experts often point out that the increased costs spurred by tariffs are often transferred to the consumers through higher prices.
Monday’s month-long pause on tariffs with Mexico buys authorities in that country time to negotiate.
Reporting from Mexico City, Al Jazeera correspondent John Holman explained that officials will likely make the case that tariffs will damage not just Mexico, but US businesses, workers and consumers.
“It’s obvious that, in that relationship, Mexico is the junior partner, but Canada, Mexico, the United States have been integrated now for about 30 years,” Holman said.
“There are supply chains in Mexico with auto manufacturing, with fruit and vegetables — about three-quarters of US vegetables actually come from Mexico — that aren’t so easily unpicked,” he said.
Holman added that Sheinbaum will seek to appeal to Trump’s other priorities, like counteracting growing Chinese influence in the world.
“She will try to send the message that we should be working together to make our region rise up against competition from other parts of the world, like China,” he said.
Trump teased that further negotiations with Mexico were already anticipated.
In Monday’s post, he announced that US Secretary of State Marcio Rubio, Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent and Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick would lead the discussions over the next month, “as we attempt to achieve a ‘deal’ between our two countries”.
