Study reveals 1.8 billion people could face liver disease by 2050

A study suggests that by 2050, metabolic liver disease will affect 1.8 billion people worldwide. This rise is linked to increasing obesity and high blood sugar levels. One common condition is metabolically dysfunctional associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), which was previously called non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). It is one of the most common and fastest-growing liver diseases globally. Currently, about 1.3 billion people live with MASLD, a 143% increase over the past 30 years. About 1 in 6 people, or 16%, are affected.

The findings from a major study on health, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), were published in the journal Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. The number of people with MASLD is expected to keep increasing due to global population growth and lifestyle changes, like rising obesity and higher blood sugar levels. In 1990, around 500 million people had MASLD. By 2023, this number grew to 1.3 billion. By 2050, MASLD may affect 1.8 billion people, marking a 42% increase from 2023.

In 2023, the global rate of MASLD reached 14,429 cases per 100,000 people, a 29% increase since 1990. MASLD was more common in men than in women, particularly among older adults aged 80-84. However, the largest number of cases were in younger people, with men aged 35 to 39 and women aged 55 to 59 most affected. The main cause of health problems related to MASLD worldwide was high blood sugar, followed by high BMI and smoking, showing strong links to type 2 diabetes and obesity.

What is the global prevalence of MASLD?

Some regions, including North Africa and the Middle East, had disproportionately higher rates of MASLD than other regions. But there have been sharp increases in the number of people affected in countries across the world. In the UK, the prevalence rate increased by a third (33%) between 1990 and 2023, the biggest rise in Western Europe, according to an analysis of the data by the Guardian. The analysis showed that the disease rate increased by 30% in Australia and 22% in the United States. The study also found that, even though more people were getting the disease, the overall effect on health, measured by years lost to illness or death, remained unchanged.

New treatments and care are helping people live longer and healthier lives. Most new cases of the disease are being diagnosed in the early stages. However, the rising number of cases means that many people may still face serious problems later, such as liver cirrhosis or cancer. MASLD is often linked to being overweight and can usually be treated with lifestyle changes, which usually do not cause symptoms. Many people have the condition without knowing it, according to the NHS in England. It is often discovered during tests for another reason.

What are the warning signs of liver disease?

You may feel very tired, generally unwell, or have pain or discomfort in your liver, located in the abdomen under the right side of your ribs. The study was conducted by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, a public health research institute at the University of Washington in Seattle. The authors stated that more young adults are developing MASLD due to worsening health and lifestyles. The increase in cases underscores the need to treat MASLD as a global health priority. They emphasised the need for policies, awareness campaigns, and interventions to reduce its impact and prevent future complications.