In theory, it’s the contest that could reshape the Republican primary race. In truth, it would be a major surprise.
As much as there is anticipation of a contest breaking out in New Hampshire, there’s acknowledgment of the plainly obvious: Donald Trump is the standout favourite to be the Republican nominee.
Without Ron DeSantis, this is a head-to-head between the former president and his former UN ambassador – Donald Trump versus Nikki Haley. The momentum is with Trump and, as the bandwagon rolls his way, New Hampshire is Haley’s chance to pull a handbrake turn – probably her last.
Her survival in this race counts on her winning this primary contest or, at the very least, coming a strong second.
There are reasons why she can succeed, and reasons why she must.
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Nikki Haley has invested heavily in the Granite state – politically and financially – and some opinion polls place her close to Donald Trump, even if recent polling emphatically doesn’t. Average polling shows Trump ahead by double digits.
The Haley vision is that she pulls sufficient support from a moderate crowd, a coalition of independent voters and softer Republicans, to carry her forward as a credible contender. She will hope to draw on DeSantis votes heading her way, even if Trump would seem their more natural home.
In New Hampshire, primary voters form an electorate less welded to the Trump base – approximately 40% of those casting their vote are unaffiliated to either the Republican or Democratic Party.
Haley supporters point to a different demographic from the one that delivered for Trump in Iowa – less evangelical and more college-educated.
A strong performance would give Nikki Haley traction going forward and she needs it.
Ahead lies a primary in South Carolina, the state where she served as governor.
There, the polls show her trailing even further behind Trump. Defeat in her home state would be a daunting prospect on the back of a poor showing in New Hampshire, one that would unsettle campaign donors.
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Nikki Haley would be left contemplating the same choices as DeSantis when the donors who had ploughed millions of dollars into his campaign decided he wasn’t worth millions more.
For all the people who backed Trump in Iowa, half of those who voted didn’t. It was only one vote in one state and turnout was the lowest it had been in decades – one reading is that there are enough Republicans unconvinced by Donald Trump to create space for a credible challenge.
For Republicans seeking a Trump alternative, New Hampshire carries an air of now or never. No Republican who has won two of the first three primary/caucus states has ever lost the nomination.
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