From tariffs to the Ukraine war, United States President Donald Trump has picked diplomatic squabbles with leaders worldwide since his January 20 inauguration.
However, while Trump has framed his combative approach as putting “America first”, many of these leaders have benefitted politically, too.
Data suggests that leaders who are seen to be proactively negotiating with Trump without compromising too much are gaining in polls and in terms of approval ratings. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is enjoying the highest approval rating of any Mexican head of state since 1985. Canada’s ruling Liberal Party has closed a wide gap with the opposition Conservative Party, which has been leading in polls ahead of national elections. And they are not the only ones.
But to what extent are these poll gains because of how these leaders are dealing with Trump? Are other factors at play? Here is what the numbers look like, and what analysts think might be going on.
Canada and Justin Trudeau
Prime minister since 2015, Canada’s Justin Trudeau stepped down on March 9 to make way for economist Mark Carney – also from his Liberal Party – who was sworn in as the PM of Canada last Friday.
Trudeau had been under mounting pressure to resign for months before he finally quit, amid rising costs of living, increasing intraparty fights, resignations from his cabinet and questions about his immigration policies.
That pressure only grew as Trump threatened hefty tariffs against Canada after he was elected. Trudeau’s longtime deputy and finance minister Chrystia Freeland resigned in mid-December 2024 amid disagreements over how to deal with Trump.
Trudeau initially didn’t respond to a series of barbs from Trump, who repeatedly said that he wanted Canada as the 51st state of the US and referred to the Canadian PM mockingly as “governor”. Instead, as Trump accused Canada of allowing fentanyl to enter the US through their border, Trudeau appointed a “fentanyl czar” to tackle the issue.
But as Trump – after deferring tariffs on Canada for a month – eventually carried out his threat against most Canadian exports to the US early in March, Trudeau took a more firm, public position.
“Canadians are reasonable, and we are polite. But we will not back down from a fight. Not when our country and the wellbeing of everyone in it is at stake,” Trudeau said on March 4.
What do Canadian federal polls show?
Several polls show that while Conservatives under their leader, Pierre Poilievre, were consistently leading by a considerable margin throughout 2024, the Liberal Party jumped up in the polls starting from February 2025 and significantly closed the gap.
Averages of polls by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) show that the Conservatives were leading the Liberals by 24 percentage points in early January. Now that gap has shrunk to just 5.5 percentage points as of March 17, with the Conservatives at 38.9 percent support, and Liberals at 33.4 percent.
“In Canadian polling history, at least in this century, it is the first time I’ve ever seen this. To come back from a 25-point deficit is very unheard of, especially for a government that’s been in power for almost a decade,” Philippe J Fournier, analyst and creator of electoral projection model and website 338Canada, told Al Jazeera.
What explains this?
The Liberals closing such a major gap in the polls can be explained by a combination of factors, experts say.
The factors include “Justin Trudeau’s departure, the arrival of Mark Carney, the tariff attacks by Donald Trump and discomfort with Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre,” Darrell Bricker, CEO of public affairs at research agency Ipsos, told Al Jazeera.
Fournier of 338Canada explained that many Canadian parliamentarians were pressuring Trudeau to step down for months. “When [Trudeau] finally announced that he would resign in early January, the tension eased. Then, Trump got inaugurated and right away, started his threat of tariffs.
“More than tariffs, it was the threat to Canada’s sovereignty,” Fournier said, referring to Trump’s calls for Canada to become a part of the US.
Fournier also argued that Poilievre’s approach to politics – and similarities some voters have noted with Trump’s style – could be working against him.
“Poilievre is using the same style and the same language and the same tactics as Trump,” Fournier said. “With Trump threatening Canada, many swing voters are looking towards the conservative leader and thinking ‘Is that the direction we want this country to be in?’
He added that it is not just Conservative voters who are switching sides, but also voters who would typically vote for other parties. “Carney seems to be able to reach people from across the spectrum,” he said.
Mexico and Claudia Sheinbaum
Sheinbaum was sworn in on October 1, 2024, as the first female president of Mexico, taking over from predecessor and mentor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. As a response to Trump’s tariff threats, Sheinbaum deployed 10,000 National Guard troops to the US-Mexico border to help curb unregulated immigration.
Trump had initially ordered that 25 percent tariffs be imposed on all Mexican and Canadian imports, but these were delayed for a month amid negotiations with Sheinbaum and Trudeau.
Days before the tariffs were to be finally imposed, Trump announced further delays on several products from Mexico, and some from Canada, until April 2. These were products that fell under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), a free-trade agreement. Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that he had made this decision after speaking with Sheinbaum and “out of respect” for her.
What do Sheinbaum’s approval ratings show?
Data from different pollsters in Mexico shows that Sheinbaum has enjoyed high approval ratings since her inauguration. The Buendia y Marquez polls show that 80 percent of respondents approved of their president in mid-February.
Polls by Mexican national daily newspaper El Financiero show that 85 percent of respondents approved of Sheinbaum in February. This is the highest approval rating achieved in the country in the last 30 years, El Fiannciero reported. Sheinbaum’s approval ratings were 70 percent in October and she has steadily climbed since.
Mexicans have mixed feelings about how Sheinbaum is dealing with Trump, El Financiero’s February data shows. While 60 percent of respondents said that they believed she was doing a good or very good job at handling Trump’s deportations, 55 percent of respondents approved Sheinbaum’s handling of tariffs.
However, when asked how they viewed the state of relations between Sheinbaum’s government and Trump’s administration, 38 percent of the respondents said they believed it was good or very good, while 45 percent of the respondents said it was bad or very bad.
In other words, the polls suggest that Mexicans believe the relationship is strained – but they’re backing Sheinbaum to handle it well.
What explains this?
In some ways, Sheinbaum inherited her approval rating from her predecessor Lopez Obrador, Sandra Pellegrini, a senior analyst on Latin America and the Caribbean, for independent non-profit Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), said.
Lopez Obrador assumed office in December 2018, and by February 2019, had an approval rating of 83 percent. Sheinbaum belongs to his Morena party and was his handpicked successor.
“Despite the pandemic, economic stagnation and security challenges, Lopez Obrador remained popular throughout his six-year term, earning him the nickname ‘the Teflon president’,” Carin Zissis, a fellow at the Mexico Institute of the Wilson Center in Washington said. Lopez Obrador had a rating of about 74 percent near the end of his term in September 2024.
Consistently high approval ratings for the Morena party leaders have been attributed to their social welfare policies, started by Lopez Obrador and continued by Sheinbaum. This includes the Sembrando Vida program which aims to promote afforestation and eliminate poverty.
But Zissis told Al Jazeera that Sheinbaum’s handling of the relationship with the Trump administration was also “a contributing factor” to her high approval ratings.
“As the country faces threats of tariffs and military action from Washington, Mexicans have rallied around their leader and country,” Zissis said.
“While other leaders have responded quickly to tariff threats, taking reciprocal measures, she has exercised a patient approach that, given the Trump administration’s decision to delay tariffs, appears to have proven effective and resulted in global and domestic accolades for the country’s first woman president.”
Ukraine and Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Since February, Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have found themselves embroiled in tense interactions. In a social media post last month, Trump described Zelenskyy as a “dictator without elections,” claiming that Zelenskyy’s approval rating was 4 percent. Zelenskyy was elected as Ukrainian president in 2019.
The tensions came to a head on February 28 when Zelenskyy visited the White House. During a meeting in the Oval Office, Trump and his Vice President JD Vance publicly accused Zelenskyy of not being thankful enough for US support to Ukraine. Shortly after, Trump suspended military aid and intelligence sharing to Ukraine.
Zelenskyy maintained a conciliatory tone towards Trump, expressing gratitude for US support and in subsequent days emphasising that he was ready for peace negotiations. The US and Ukraine have since agreed to a 30-day ceasefire plan that Russia is yet to accept. The US has restored the military aid and intelligence that it had stalled.
What do the numbers show?
A survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) showed that 67 percent of respondents trusted Zelenskyy in March, after his public clash with Trump. This was a 10-point jump since February, when 57 percent of respondents said they trusted him.
Why is this happening?
“Ukrainians perceive the rhetoric of the new US administration as an attack on the whole of Ukraine and all Ukrainians,” Anton Hrushetskyi, the executive director of KIIS said in a statement reported by Reuters on March 7.
Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron
In February, representatives from the US and Russia met in Saudi Arabia to discuss the end of the war in Ukraine, with Ukraine and European leaders absent from the table. This came shortly after Trump said that the US would not provide security guarantees to Ukraine and said that Europe needs to step up in terms of this.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron stepped up, with both leaders visiting Trump and Macron hosting an emergency summit with other European leaders. Starmer then held another meeting with European allies, invited Zelenskky to it, and announced a “coalition of the willing” that would devise a peace plan to present to the US. He has since suggested that the coalition might provide security guarantees for Ukraine as a part of any peace deal with Russia.
What do the numbers show?
Starmer, who was experiencing a slump in approval back home less than a year after taking office, has seen his approval ratings climb in the past month. According to YouGov, his popularity is at its highest since he took office in early July, up from 22 percent then to 27 percent now.
Macron’s approval ratings also rose from 17 percent in February to 27 percent in March, according to Ipsos.
Why is this happening?
Starmer’s approval ratings have climbed because of his ability to navigate difficult situations, an analyst told Al Jazeera.
“He is good at facing the wind when there is bad news and hard choices to confront,” John Curtice, a professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde told Al Jazeera.
When asked whether Starmer’s improving approval rating has something to do with his conduct with Trump, Curtice, who is a senior fellow at the National Centre for Social Research said “the timing suggests it does. Nothing has happened on the domestic front to account for it.”
In France, international crises including the Ukraine war were among the top three concerns for 33 percent of the Ipsos survey respondents, suggesting that Macron and his apparently deft handling of Trump might have helped him, too.
