Initial exit polls appear to confirm what we have known for weeks: that the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) have got the most votes in the federal election, with Friedrich Merz most likely to be the next chancellor.
While this result isn’t a surprise, it doesn’t mean the path to power will be easy.
First off, the CDU-CSU don’t have a majority so they need to try to build a coalition.
Their most obvious choices as partners are the third-place Social Democrats. A two-party coalition is preferred as it can avoid excess bickering but the SPD and CDU disagree on several key points including sending long-range Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine.
Follow live: Germany’s election results
Forming a government can take months but Merz is keen to speed up the process – aware of the pressing issues both at home and abroad.
One of those is the rise of the far right, with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party celebrating historic results.
The initial results suggest that for the first time since the Second World War, a far-right party has got the second highest number of votes.
That could also cause serious issues for the next government.
As a result of Germany‘s Nazi history, mainstream parties have a long-running pact known as the “firewall” which says they will not work with the far right.
Even before the polls had closed leader Alice Weidel echoed Donald Trump and released a video statement urging people to “observe” the ballots being counted and to “protect democracy”.
The AfD’s Alice Weidel celebrating after the exit poll result. Pic: AP
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Many of the AfD’s supporters have said not allowing the second most popular party into government is undemocratic, threatening to take to the streets.
The US vice president JD Vance also sparked outrage when he spoke out against the firewall at the recent Munich Security Conference and suggested the new Trump administration would be ready to work with the AfD.
Conversely, in the run-up to the election, hundreds of thousands of Germans have protested to demand that the firewall remains.
German chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic Party after the exit poll results. Pic: Reuters
In January, Merz caused controversy when a draft motion got through parliament with AfD support, he’s since vowed he will not go into government with them.
If he sticks to that pledge then he is likely to see right-wing demonstrations as well becoming a target of prominent AfD backers including Elon Musk.
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The AfD’s result also cannot be ignored. While some of the vote may be a protest, the party has expanded its traditional base in the east to pick up support in the west.
Dissatisfaction over migration, the economy, rocketing prices and the war in Ukraine have all helped to grow its ranks as people feel ignored by mainstream parties.
Merz has already tried to win back some of its voters by proposing tough migration reforms including permanent checks on the borders and potentially turning away some asylum seekers when they try to enter.
If he fails to deliver on these promises then the AfD will continue to make gains.
Other urgent to dos for the next government include sorting out Germany’s economy following two years of recession and restoring its position at the centre of the EU.
Ministers must also face up to the fact their traditional allies are no longer guaranteed.
The Trump administration appears to be ripping up the rule book when it comes to being a protector of Europe and its ongoing support for Ukraine.
If America steps back, as Europe’s largest power and Ukraine’s largest European backer, Germany will have to step up.
Again, that’s going to be a big challenge as its military needs to be transformed.
The final results are not even confirmed yet but whatever form it takes, the next government knows it has four years to fix Germany, if it fails then populists are highly likely to ride to power in 2029.
