Nike set for weak quarterly sales growth as On, Hoka chip away market share

Nike is set to post its slowest revenue growth in two years when it reports fourth-quarter results on Thursday, due to a lack of innovation amid growing competition from Deckers’ Hoka and Roger Federer-backed On.

At least seven brokerages have cut their price targets on Nike since the start of the month, with many expecting the sportswear maker to further cede market share to newer, more innovative brands.

“On and Hoka are still capturing consumers’ interest and they’re still taking market share away from Nike, and in that respect, I think Nike is still a company that is on the back foot… (and) feels slightly boring,” GlobalData analyst Neil Saunders said.

However, with the Olympic Games in Paris around the corner, Nike is pinning its hopes on the mega sporting event to win back some market share by spotlighting performance products such as the Alphafly 3 racer and the Pegasus running shoe.

Nike’s strategy to focus on its direct-to-customer business, away from wholesale, did not reap benefits, exacerbating its demand woes. Company executives said in March they would double down on wholesale partnerships to boost sales.

On’s market share in the footwear category at retailer Dick’s Sporting Goods was 12%, as of May 25, up from 8% in the beginning of January, while Hoka saw its market share rising to 13% from 8%, according to YipitData, which collates market share using email receipt and transaction data.

Meanwhile, Nike’s market share at the retailer fell to 32% in May, compared to 39% in January, according to YipitData.

The popularity of the upstart brands, especially in the running category, has also forced market leader Nike to kick off a $2 billion cost-saving plan, spread over three years, which includes a pullback on key sneaker lines such as its Air Force 1 shoes.

Nike’s fourth-quarter revenue is expected to rise only 0.2%, to $12.85 billion from a year earlier, according to LSEG data.

Analysts on average expect Nike’s adjusted earnings to grow 26.4%, to 83 cents per share, from a year earlier.
The company will report results after markets close on June 27.

The current average rating of 40 analysts on Nike’s stock is “buy”, with 25 analysts rating it “buy” or higher, three “sell” and 12 “hold”.

Nike’s stock has fallen nearly 12% so far this year.