Venezuelan friends and colleagues, many of whom have worked with me for over a decade covering the South American country, had been increasingly optimistic that a change in government was coming.
Over the past months, I have woken up to excited messages and phone calls from them – they were convinced that change would come this time.
Opinion polls in Venezuela indicated that opposition to Nicolas Maduro’s government was growing, and Venezuelans who opposed him were convinced the polls would be right.
They were uniformly upset when I pointed out that in my opinion Mr Maduro was never simply going to hand over power.
“This time the opposition movement has momentum, they are popular and well organised, and won’t let him win,” they’d reply.
Now everybody is waiting to see what happens next.
Venezuelan opposition supporters outside Venezuela’s Embassy in Mexico City. Pic: Reuters
Some left-leaning countries in the region have congratulated Mr Maduro, while others have criticised the result.
Some, including the United States, are calling for a transparent tally of the votes.
This may still develop as a story, but one mustn’t forget that Mr Maduro’s government is the child of the Hugo Chavez revolution that benefited millions of the poorest people in Venezuela when he brought in sweeping social programmes, using petrodollars to change lives. Some people will never forget that.
A Maduro supporter in Caracas. Pic: Reuters
But Mr Maduro is not Mr Chavez.
More importantly, though, Mr Maduro and his presidency represent “the system”, in other words, a centralised, socialist government.
And every major government institution – including the police, the intelligence services, the military, the judiciary and, some might argue, even the electoral commission – are interlinked.
It’s not in any of their interests to simply hand over power, and in many ways, it would have to be taken from them.
The question that has been debated for years now, is whether the opposition will be able to beat the system, simply because it is designed to keep itself in power, with Mr Maduro at the head.
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Venezuela has one of the largest supplies of oil in the world, and yet it remains one of the poorest countries in Latin America, from where millions have left, migrating north, mainly to the United States.
Venezuela is a country ripe for change, and ready for a new direction for its people. But it’s hard to see how that is going to happen anytime soon, especially while the “system” still exists.
Even as I’m writing this, my phone has pinged… it’s a dear friend in Caracas who has simply written: “Well, it’s very disappointing.”
