Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is used to being the centre of attention on his trips to the United States, basking in the glow of bipartisan support and ignoring the few American politicians who choose to criticise his country.
But his latest trip came at an inflexion point in the race for the US presidency, with Democrat President Joe Biden announcing the day before Netanyahu’s arrival that he would be dropping out of running for re-election. Instead of finding politicians eager to meet him, Netanyahu spent most of his trip being overshadowed by local events.
Then, he was forced to cut short his trip after a rocket attack on a Druze town in the occupied Golan Heights killed 12 people on Saturday. Israel has blamed Hezbollah for the attack, but the Lebanon-based group has denied responsibility.
While the European Union called for an independent investigation into the incident and most countries avoided blaming either side, the US accused Hezbollah of being behind the attack, underscoring Netanyahu’s reliance on Washington at a time when he is increasingly isolated at home and internationally.
The Israeli leader’s domestic popularity is at an all-time low, with many Israelis frustrated at his inability to secure the release of captives taken during the Hamas-led attack on October 7, and who continue to be held in Gaza.
In Washington, DC, Netanyahu was able to give his fourth address to the US Congress – the most of any foreign leader – with a cheering audience applauding what felt like every other word. But dozens of lawmakers boycotted the event in protest of Israel’s conduct in Gaza, where its military has killed almost 40,000 Palestinians since October 7.
Netanyahu was able to meet Biden, the Democrats’ new presumptive presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris and the Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump.
However, Harris followed the meeting by highlighting the suffering of the people of Gaza. Even Trump said last week that Israel needed to end its war on Gaza quickly because of the bad publicity and because the world was “not taking lightly” its war.
The presidential race
The timing of Netanyahu’s trip, coming as the US presidential election environment began to heat up, was always going to be difficult, say analysts. The Israeli leader faced a tough balancing act, keeping all sides of the US political divide happy and avoiding any perception that he was supporting one side over the other.
And what was looking like a presidential race with Trump as a heavy favourite has now turned more evenly balanced as the Democrats get behind Harris. The vice president has been eager to energise her party’s base and one way is to signal a more pro-Palestinian policy than Biden’s.
Earlier today, I delivered remarks to press about my meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel. pic.twitter.com/lNLSaufIvK
— Vice President Kamala Harris (@VP) July 26, 2024
“Netanyahu’s main takeaway is probably going to be that Harris is likely to be less of a blank cheque for him than Biden has been already, on the Democratic side, even if that’s minimal,” said HA Hellyer, a non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Institute’s Middle East programme.
“More than that, he appears to have resolved the rift with Donald Trump on this trip, who was reportedly furious with Netanyahu when the latter congratulated Biden on his victory in [the] 2020 [presidential election].”
“One should expect Netanyahu to continue precisely as he has done thus far, until at least the elections in November,” Hellyer added. “Both a Harris presidency and a Trump presidency will prioritise support for Israel, but it’s a question of how much, and Netanyahu definitely prefers a Trump one.”
Some analysts believe, however, that a win for Trump – notorious for his temperamental personality – can also have downsides for Netanyahu, hence the importance of a positive meeting on this trip.
“It’s not as straightforward as you might think,” said Mitchell Barak, a pollster and former Netanyahu aide.
“Netanyahu knows that Biden will overlook personal disrespect if it means he can continue to help safeguard Israel. With Trump, that’s not the case. With Trump, it’s very much about the personal. He needs to know he’s respected,” Barak said.
Netanyahu’s address to Congress was evidence that for the majority of politicians in Washington, DC – particularly on the Republican side – full-throated support for Israel is still the standard. According to Hellyer, the prime minister’s trip, therefore, was more about maintaining the current US position and making sure the voices of dissent do not get louder – even if that risks antagonising his critics.
“The US-Israeli relationship more broadly hasn’t changed much as a result of Netanyahu’s trip, but there are trends that are changing that relationship over time, which this trip plays into,” Hellyer said.
“[Washington] DC’s relationship with Israel is no longer as bipartisan as it used to be, and a big part of the reason why is Netanyahu’s engagement directly into American politics. He just did more of that, and [those dissenting] in the Democratic Party on Israel will just see his trip as more evidence of why their dissent is important.”
Domestic troubles
Netanyahu found a more receptive audience in the US Congress than he often does in the Israeli Knesset.
In fact, as American lawmakers whooped and cheered his speech – once even being asked by Netanyahu to stop and listen – politicians and opponents back home were criticising him.
“What about the hostages? What did you say about [them] besides empty words,” said opposition leader Yair Lapid.
On the streets, the protests that began before the war over his proposed judicial reforms continue, even if their focus has shifted. Now, thousands of Israelis fill the streets of Tel Aviv and other locations across Israel, calling for a deal that ultranationalist members of Netanyahu’s coalition cabinet inevitably refuse, threatening the prime minister’s grip on power and bringing a reckoning both for his inaction on October 7, as well as longstanding corruption charges, closer.
Many Israelis, therefore, see his trip to the US as a chance to take a break from his troubles back home.
“He wanted to escape,” said Alon Pinkas, Israel’s former consul general to the US between 2000 and 2004. “It’s a vanity tour, pure and simple. He’s doing what he thinks a prime minister does: speaking. Not working on policy or negotiations, just speaking.”
“Congress has provided everything [Netanyahu] asked for, and more,” Pinkas added. “That he wanted to thank them is understandable, but that’s a Zoom call, not an international visit.”
With those issues at home and continued global isolation, US support is more vital than ever for Israel.
The US provides Israel with arms, economic aid and diplomatic cover at the United Nations. It has also turned its ire on international institutions such as the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the International Criminal Court (ICC) when they focus on Israel.
It is why the US is always such an important stop for Netanyahu. But while Israel still has strong support in Washington, despite its devastation of Gaza, the increase in US politicians willing to openly criticise Israel will be worrying if it is indicative of a wider shift coming.
“The US government is nearly the only supporter left in the world for Israel,” said Omar Rahman, a fellow at the Middle East Council. “Even in Europe, support is wavering.” Rahman cited the example of the UK, where a new Labour government has pulled back from challenging the ICC prosecutor’s call for warrants for the arrest of Netanyahu and his Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. “So it makes sense to try and shore up that support in Washington,” he said.
“While most Israelis won’t buy much of what he said, especially regarding getting back hostages, his speech and the enthusiastic reaction of American congresspeople signals his unique power in Washington,” Rahman continued.
“For an American – and international – audience, he was able to make his case. However flimsy and discredited it may be, it still resonates with many. And he wants the US government to continue to back him and his war in the face of mounting international pressure, especially from international courts.”
