England have a 59% chance of winning the third Test at Headingley as it stands, at the end of the first day’s play.
Australia currently have a 39% chance, with the likelihood of a draw just 2%, according to predictions from cricket analytics company CricViz.
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England need to win this Test. A win for Australia would mean they claim both the series and the Ashes at the earliest possible opportunity, after narrow wins at both Edgbaston and Lord’s in June.
A draw would be enough for Australia to retain the Ashes, as they hold them following their 4-0 victory in Australia in 2021/22.
What were the biggest moments from today’s play?
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- England won the toss and chose to bowl, a decision soon vindicated as Australia’s top four batters – including key man Steve Smith – were all out before lunch, leaving the score at 91-4
- Mitch Marsh fought back for Australia with a free-flowing 118 runs off 118 balls, including four sixes and 17 fours
- After tea, Mark Wood tore through the Australian tail-end with his extreme pace, averaging over 90mph during the Australia innings. Australia lost their last six wickets for 23 runs
- England lost their top three, Ben Duckett, Zach Crawley and Harry Brook, and ended the day on 68-3 with Joe Root and Jonny Bairstow batting
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Watch day two from 10am Friday on Sky Sports Cricket (11am first ball)
How are the percentages calculated?
An algorithm takes into account results from similar situations in Test matches in the past, particularly those at the same ground, as well as recent results and form for the teams and players involved in this match.
From there it works out the likelihood of either team winning or the result ending in a draw.
Each time a ball is bowled or there is a delay to action causing a potential loss of time in the match, the figures are adjusted.
When wickets are taken this results in an immediate jump in the chances of the bowling side, the size of which will depend on the strength of the batter who’s been eliminated and who remains for the batting side.
Strong batting partnerships tend to build the win percentage more gradually as they develop, although faster scoring may result in a quicker increase.
The advent of “Bazball” – the aggressive form of cricket England have played since coach Brendon McCullum (nicknamed “Baz”) and captain Ben Stokes came together in the summer of 2022 – has partly led to the algorithm being forced to understand that higher fourth-innings run chases are more likely than they may have been in the past.
England chased scores of 277, 299 and 296 against New Zealand and 378 against India to win matches last summer, becoming the first England side in history to win four Tests in a row batting last, and the first to chase three consecutive scores of 250+ against New Zealand.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
